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Of the three, Mac Jones has easily been at his best against Cover-4 so far this season, perhaps because it encourages the kind of underneath throws on which Jones excels. New England ranks almost exactly average in yards after contact this season (2.73 per carry compared with a league average of 2.77), though rookie Rhamondre Stevenson has shown an ability to do better (3.2 per carry) than his backfield mates and could therefore be New England's best option in this matchup.īuffalo tends to mix up its coverages in the passing game, utilizing each of Cover-1, Cover-3, and Cover-4 on at least 23% of snaps, per TruMedia. No other team has averaged more than 2.55 yards after contact per carry against Buffalo. The Colts averaged 4.74 yards after contact per carry, according to TruMedia the Titans averaged 5.95 per carry. The big differentiator in those two games was the work Taylor and Henry were able to do after first contact.
By way of perspective, consider that all other players have combined for 735 yards and four touchdowns on 218 carries (3.4 per carry) against the Bills. Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry combined for 54 carries for 328 yards (6.1 per carry) and seven touchdowns on the ground in those two games. Those two teams are the only ones to score more than 23 against Sean McDermott's unit this year.
The Indianapolis Colts dropped 41 points on Buffalo and the Tennessee Titans hung 34 on the Bills. The two teams to experience the most offensive success against the Bills, though, are two of the most physical, run-based teams in the NFL. Entering Week 13, Buffalo ranks first in yards allowed per game, second in points allowed per game (more on the team that ranks first later in this post), first in EPA per play, and first in Football Outsiders' DVOA, with the fourth-ranked unit against the run and first-ranked unit against the pass. The Bills have been arguably the NFL's best defense in 2021.
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